Rousseff ‘would win re-election without runoff’

Brazil’s incumbent president Dilma Rousseff would win a second term in office comfortably and without a runoff if this year’s general elections were held today, an influential pollster in the country said on Thursday.

Despite a first term in office dominated by a stagnant economy and, later, anti-government protests, Rousseff would still hold a wide lead over her rivals, according to the poll by the Brazilian Institute of Public Opinion and Statistics, IBOPE.

Brazil President Dilma Rousseff. Photo by Roberto Stuckert Filho.

Brazil President Dilma Rousseff has a wide lead over rivals for October’s presidential elections. Photo by Roberto Stuckert Filho.

The survey of 2,002 people conducted between 13 and 17 March, which had a margin of error of ±2%, gave the current president a vote share of between 40% and 43%, depending on which opponents she faced.

IBOPE gave those surveyed a variety of scenarios given not all candidates may yet have officially entered the race.

Rousseff’s nearest rival was Aécio Neves, a senator from Minas Gerais state and member of the country’s main opposition party, the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB). He would garner around 13% of the vote, the poll suggested.

PSB candidate Eduardo Campos, who recently launched a scathing attack on the president, would get 6% of votes and third place.

Crucially, the IBOPE survey showed that many Brazilians have yet to make up their minds. Many responded that they would spoil their vote or simply did not know yet.

The IBOPE survey shows Rousseff would get 40%, Neves 13% and Campos 6%, but that 24% would spoil their ballot and 12% were unsure. Graphic by G1.

Although the Brazilian electoral system would normally require a candidate to reach the 50 percent threshold in order to avoid a second round, the pollster said that Rousseff would get more votes than all other candidates combined and therefore take the election in the first round.

Voting in the general elections on 5 October, based upon which the president, deputies, senators, state governors and state legislatures are appointed, is mandatory but Brazilians can spoil their vote or not vote for a legitimate reason which they then have to ‘justify’ to the authorities.

The news was welcomed by Rousseff and her Workers Party (PT), particularly after her approval ratings slumped from over 60% towards the beginning of her presidency to just 31% in the wake of last year’s mass anti-government protests, which saw over a million Brazilians take to the streets – although this had recovered to around 40% by November 2013.

Some 7% of respondents said they would vote for the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, although he is not running and has publicly backed Dilma Rousseff, whom he put forward for the 2010 elections after reaching a maximum of two terms in office.

President Lula left office with approval ratings of 83%.

Extended version of report written for Anadolu Agency

12 June 2013

Dilma Sees Drop in Popularity Poll

An opinion poll carried out by Datafolha has shown an eight-point drop in approval for Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, the first major fall in popularity suffered by the president since taking office.

President Rousseff drops 8 points in a Datafolha opinion poll of over 3,750 Brazilians.

The proportion of people answering “good” or “excellent” slumped from 65% in March this year – the highest so far recorded for Rousseff – to 57% at the beginning of June.

Some 3,758 people from across Brazil took part in the survey, and the president fell in the estimation of every group – among both men and women and all areas of the country, age brackets, income levels and education backgrounds.

The biggest change in opinion was reflected among top-earners (24 points down), as well as those with further education (16 pts), from the President’s native South region (13 pts) and 25- to 34-year-olds (13 pts).

The survey also showed growing pessimism for the country’s economy, rising concern over inflation, and more people worrying about unemployment in the future.

However, despite the reported drop in popularity for Rousseff, whose popularity has at times even rivalled that of her much-admired predecessor, she remains favourite to win a second term in office at the presidential elections next year, with the results pointing to the president getting around 51 percent of the vote if it were held today.

President Rousseff’s close allies in government were quick to play down its significance, labelling it a “blip” and something that would be corrected when the economy was back on track.

However, those in opposition tried to capitalize on the results, particularly rival presidential candidate Aécio Neves (PSDB), who said the figures showed the current government’s “growing fragility due to various wrong decisions, especially on the economy.”

Read the full article in The Rio Times